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State Council Document
No.69 |
[English translation
of original Chinese text]
State
Council Endorses
To the leading public administrators
of
Please pay close attention to the information and implement the
recommendations in the attached
Earthquake work is an important mission that concerns the preservation
of lives and property. We look to you to build and strengthen earthquake
management offices by implementing the national policy, that is: place top
priority on earthquake preparedness, integrate the efforts of professionals and
the lay public, and combine Chinese and Western methods. Intensify earthquake
preparedness and mitigation efforts by mobilizing professional teams and
organizing lay public monitoring and preparation.
At present, the science and technologies to monitor and predict
earthquakes are still in their early stages. Therefore, the large earthquakes
forecast in this report for this year and next year are
estimates only; they may or may not occur. However, we should operate on the
assumption that there will be a large earthquake and should therefore make preparations.
At the same time, you must minimize the potential for public panic and
social disarray that this alert may cause.
Report on the Earthquake Situation in
Prepared by the
To the State Council:
From 7-9 June 1974, the State Seismological Bureau (SSB) held a conference on
the earthquake situation in the
The conference analyzed the earthquake situation of the above-mentioned
areas. The majority opinion is that, within this year or next year, earthquakes
of magnitude 5 to 6 may occur in: the Beijing-Tianjin
area; north part of the Bohai Sea; Handan and Anyang in the border
area between Shanxi, Hebei,
and Henan; the Linfen basin
in Shanxi; the Linyi area
in Shandong; and the central part of the Yellow Sea. Earthquakes of around
magnitude 5 may occur in
The principle evidence for the above is:
Beijing-Tianjin
area
- Recent frequent
occurrences of small earthquakes
- Abnormal readings
of crustal deformation
- Anomalous gravity
measurements
- Unusual changes
in radon content in groundwater
- Changes in water
level in
- Geomagnetic
anomaly of 22-gamma recorded in the Dailian
area.
- Six
tide-monitoring stations in the northern
- Marked increase
in microseismicity.
Linfen Basin in southern Shanxi
- Anomalies in
seismic velocity in recent years
Shanxi, Henan, Hebei
border area and the central part of the Yellow Sea
- Increase in microseismicity
Linyi area in southern Shandong
- A pattern of high
seismicity in the area peripheral to Linyi has emerged in the past few years. This pattern
is similar to the one which formed before the historic 1668 magnitude 8.5 earthquake in the same area.
In addition, based on the historical pattern of major earthquake
activity, the study of regional seismicity, the
influence of the Western Pacific seismic belt and those earthquakes with focal
depths of 400-500km on
Furthermore, prolonged drought in the northern part of North China, and abnormal
meteorological conditions rarely seen since 1949 – a warm winter, a cold
spring, and imbalance in humidity during the past year – indicate the
possibility of a major earthquake of around magnitude 7 in North China.
In contrast, some colleagues have observed an increase in the Earth’s
rate of rotation over the last year, which from past experience indicates that
large earthquakes are unlikely. An additional observation is that there is
usually a long time period between large earthquakes in this region. They
therefore believe that no earthquake greater than magnitude 5.5 will occur in
Learning from the lessons of the successive devastating earthquakes in
Our recommendations for strengthening earthquake work in the risk areas
are:
1. Strengthen leadership in earthquake work. Appoint at least one public
official in each of the seven risk areas (
2. Develop lay public monitoring and preparation networks and mobilize the
public in earnest. In the seven risk areas, there are currently about 5,000
people who participate in amateur monitoring teams, which is still inadequate.
Experience has shown that in areas where good lay monitoring and preparation
are implemented, it is possible to capture imminent precursors thereby
mitigating losses. Factories and major mining enterprises should take steps to
organize amateur monitoring teams and train volunteers. Villages should
establish public education and monitoring programs, and make effective use of
meteorological stations, schools, and amateur science groups. At the same time,
avoid panic by preparing the public psychologically for potential calamity.
3. Professional teams should investigate fully all the areas in which
anomalies have occurred, provide comprehensive analysis, and continue to
monitor the earthquake situation. Raise the level of earthquake prediction and
strive for timely early warning. Assure the normal functioning of the 109
professional monitoring centers in the risk areas. New centers should be
considered if necessary. Professionals should also work with the public and
draw from their valuable experiences, and consider development of lay
monitoring and preparation a personal goal.
4. Establish two regional groups. One group, Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan-Zhangjiakou,
headed by the State Seismological Bureau (SSB), should include earthquake
offices in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei,
the Geophysics Institute, the Seismic Geology Group, and the Seismic
Measurement Team. The second, the Bohai Group, should
comprise of the
[ End of Translation of Document No. 69 ]